Libya may become the Somalia of North Africa, of the Mediterranean… You will see the pirates in Sicily, in Crete, in Lampedusa.
First off, consider the source. Of everyone talking about pirates these days who may have a vested interest, he’s certainly at the fore…
Frankly, if it’s a choice between his dad staying in power and getting pirates after Dad’s gone, I’d take the devils we don’t know. Most pirates are more likely to be a bit saner and less extreme than Moammer Gaddafi, or at the very least couldn’t top some of the crap he’s pulled over the last 40 years.
And let’s be honest, Libya’s not in the same fractious state that Somalia found itself in 1991. They have a central authority that will leave better institutions behind when the state is transitioned, as opposed to having no one there when the Somali state died with no heirs. And of course the one thing Libya has that Somalia didn’t, vast reserves of oil, is going to keep that country from being left to die in the dark.
This is not to say that Libyan pirates are never going to show up. Even if Moammer were to leave for exile and hand over control to the rebels in the next 24 hours, which is unlikely, but hey I’m a sucker for pleasant miracles (he said still awaiting a Bills win of the Super Bowl…), there’d still be a few elements that might take hold amidst the confusion to get their buccaneer on and recoup their losses by going after Mediterranean cargo ships and tourists plying the Greek Isles. And with a stable shore that will not tolerate the Sweet Trade, or at least cannot afford to tolerate them if they wish to see oil professionals return to man the pumps, we’re not looking at the same major clans sailing off of Mogadishu here.
I think the pirates of Libya are one thing we don’t have to worry that much about for now. There are other places that are more likely to see sea brigands pop up than there for the nonce.
Such as, well…